Could There Really Have Been Over a Million Israelites by the Exodus?

Jeff Miller, Ph.D.

Alleged DiscrepanciesInspiration of the BibleFactual Accuracy

Scripture suggests that 215 years passed from the year Joseph’s family joined him in Egypt (Genesis 46) to the Exodus.1 Skeptics of the Bible’s reliability, skeptics of the reality of an actual Israelite Exodus from Egypt, and skeptics of a 215-year short sojourn of the Israelites in Egypt (as suggested by various Bible verses) all question the feasibility of 79 individuals2 producing an Israelite population numbering over 1,000,000 souls in 215 years. Do population statistics allow for such a scenario?

How Many Israelites Exited Egypt?

Numbers 1:20-46 tallies by tribe the number of Israelites in the Exodus, with the exception of the tribe of Levi. Verse 46 gives the total tally: 603,550. The average population of each of the listed tribes is roughly 50,000.3 So, if we assume the tribe of Levi was similar, the tally rises to 650,000 individuals. However, women were not included in the figure (verse 2). If we assume there were approximately as many women as there were men, we infer that there would have been 1,300,000 adult Israelites at the Exodus.

According to verse 3, those individuals age 19 and below also were not included in the tally. If we assume that, at the time, the ) were, on average, living to age 70 (Psalm 90:10), then roughly 27% of the population was not included in Moses’ tally (if we assume all age brackets had approximately the same number of Hebrews).4 If so, the Hebrew population was roughly 1,780,000 at the Exodus.

Adult Male Isrealite Population at Exodus According to Numbers 1

Reuben	46,500
Simeon	59,300
Gad	45,650
Judah	74,600
Issachar	54,400
Zebulun	57,400
Ephraim	40,500
Manasseh	32,200
Benjamin	35,400
Dan	62,700
Asher	41,500
Naphtali	53,400
Total:	603,550

Could the Hebrew Population Be That High in 215 Years?

As described previously,5 one can use statistics to arrive at reasonable population estimates at different times in history, based upon certain assumptions. If the initial Hebrew population in Egypt was 79 individuals, the average lifespan of the Hebrews was 70, they continued having children for half of their lives, had 10 children on average (due to the extremely elevated birthrates implied in the text; Exodus 1:7,12,20), and typically lived to see the births of half of their grandchildren on average (i.e., the generation length is 1.5), after 215 years, the Hebrew population would have been 1,770,000 people. Keeping in mind that if the average number of children per couple was larger or the generation length was slightly longer (e.g., 10.1 children on average and a 1.6 generation length—both of which are highly plausible), the Hebrew population quickly grows by tens of thousands.

Perhaps more notable is the fact that these calculations assume that the Hebrews gave birth to all of those individuals, with no males marrying outside of the Israelite family (as did Joseph, each of the other sons of Jacob, and Moses, for instance). If such marriages occurred only a fraction of the time (like the individual mentioned in Leviticus 24:10), the Hebrew population grows even higher. If, for example, intermarriage with the Egyptians occurred in only 5% of marriages,6 the final potential Hebrew population rises to 2,374,328. A higher percentage of such intermarriages increases the Hebrew population further and decreases the average number of children that would have been born in each home.

Also notable is the fact that the population record given in Numbers 1 may be more difficult to harmonize with, for example, a 430-year sojourn in Egypt of Jacob’s family. With the same assumptions stated above, in order to match the Hebrew population at the time of the Exodus in 430 years, the average number of children per family must be roughly four (and with little intermarriage outside of the Hebrew lineage). This scenario would be difficult to reconcile with (1) the lack of birth control methods at the time; (2) the notable alarm exhibited by the Egyptians as they observed the Hebrew population growth (Exodus 1:9-10,12); or (3) the thrice highlighted abnormality of the population explosion being witnessed at the time (Exodus 1:7,12,20).

Bottom line: the biblical claim about the Hebrew population by the time of the Exodus, after only 215 years of reproduction in Egypt, is not unreasonable. On the contrary, Moses’ record provides further support for the Bible’s reliability and sheds light on the potential Hebrew home at the time of the Exodus.

Endnotes

1 See Jonathan Moore (2025), “When and Where Was Israel’s Sojourn in Egypt? The Long and Short of It (Part 1),” Reason & Revelation, 45[2]:2-9, February.

2 See Acts 7:14, adding to Stephen’s 75, Joseph, his wife, and two sons (who were already in Egypt).

3 50,296.

4 However, with the thrice highlighted elevated Hebrew birthrates at the time (Exodus 1:7,12,20), the percentage of Hebrew children in the population at the time may have been higher, depending upon how long the elevated birthrates occurred. If the child population bracket at the time of the Exodus was 25% higher (comprising 34% of the total population instead of 27%), the total Hebrew population rises to 1,970,000. However, if the elevated period was in effect for the entire 215-year period, the percentage of children in the population would have matched the other age brackets, lowering the estimated Hebrew population at the Exodus back to roughly 1,780,000.

5 Jeff Miller (2011), “Population Statistics and a Young Earth,” Reason & Revelation, 31[5]:41-47, May; see also Walter Lammerts, ed. (1971), Scientific Studies in Special Creation (Philadelphia, PA: Presbyterian and Reformed).

6 In the population algorithms, this scenario was modeled as each couple having 10.5 children on average instead of 10 children.

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